The final Post/Freshwater Strategy poll has Labour on 30.7%, National on 26.4% and Opportunity on 5.1%. Here is why one poll is not the whole story.
Two days ago, one poll had National just ahead. Now another has Labour ahead. Which one is right? That is the wrong question - and here is why.
The final Post/Freshwater Strategy poll of the campaign was published on 5 November 2026. It asked 1,044 people between 29 October and 3 November. RNZ reports these party-vote figures:
- Labour: 30.7% - National: 26.4% - Green Party: 13% - New Zealand First: 12% - ACT: 9.8% - Opportunity: 5.1% - Te Pāti Māori: 2%
## Why do polls disagree?
Different companies ask questions in different ways, reach different people and adjust their numbers differently. The 1News-Verian poll released on 3 November had National on 30% and Labour on 29%. Both polls were taken at roughly the same time.
That is why it is more useful to compare a pollster with itself over time, and to look at several polls together, than to crown one poll the winner.
## What do the final polls agree on?
The Spinoff looked at the last four polls of the campaign and found that the totals for the main groups of parties were strikingly similar. In most of them, neither the current governing parties nor the main opposition parties would have enough seats on their own.
## Why is 5.1% such a big deal?
Under MMP, a party needs at least 5% of the party vote, or an electorate win, to share in proportional seats. Opportunity is on 5.1% in this poll - just above the line. A tiny change in real votes either way could change the shape of Parliament.
A poll above 5% does not guarantee anything. Neither does a poll below it. Only counted votes decide.
## Your poll detective challenge
Put the 3 November and 5 November polls side by side. Which party numbers are close? Which are far apart? Write one sentence explaining why two honest surveys can still give different answers.
Then remember: from 7pm on Saturday, we stop guessing and start counting.