National is on 30%, Labour on 29% and Opportunity on 6% in the final 1News-Verian poll. But a poll is a snapshot, not a result. Here is how to read it.
A headline can make an election sound settled. A closer look usually makes it more interesting.
The final 1News-Verian poll before the election was published on 3 November 2026. RNZ reports these rounded party-vote figures:
- National: 30% - Labour: 29% - Green Party: 16% - ACT: 10% - New Zealand First: 8% - Opportunity: 6% - Te Pāti Māori: 0.4%
These are estimates of support in a survey, not votes counted in the election. The rounded figures do not have to add to exactly 100%.
## Does one point mean a clear lead?
National and Labour are one percentage point apart in the rounded headline figures. That is not enough to treat the survey as proof of who will finish ahead.
The report gives a maximum sampling error of approximately plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at 95% confidence. That is a guide to sampling uncertainty, not a guarantee, and it does not capture every possible survey error. People can also change their minds after being interviewed.
## Who was asked, and when?
The poll surveyed 1,006 eligible voters between 29 October and 2 November: 500 by mobile phone and 506 through online panels. Mobile numbers were selected by random dialling. Responses were weighted to match population information for age, gender, region, ethnic identification and education.
Undecided voters, non-voters and people who refused to answer were excluded from the party-support figures. So 30% does not mean 30% of everyone in Aotearoa New Zealand.
## Why might Opportunity matter?
Opportunity is on 6% in the rounded report. Under MMP, a party needs at least 5% of the actual party vote or an electorate win to qualify for proportional seats. A poll above that threshold does not guarantee it will qualify on election day.
If it wins seats, its support might matter in negotiations. That does not automatically put it in either traditional bloc or decide who becomes Prime Minister. Apply the same qualification rules and questions to every party.
Te Pāti Māori is reported at 0.4% of the party vote, but an electorate victory is another way to qualify. Party-vote percentages alone cannot settle the shape of Parliament.
## What changed?
RNZ reports National up one point, Labour up two, the Greens up one, ACT down two, New Zealand First down two, Opportunity unchanged and Te Pāti Māori up 0.3 points from the preceding release. Small movements are not automatically meaningful.
The selected poll history on Abby's Labs skips some releases. Its previous column is 20 October, so comparing those columns is not the same as the latest week-on-week movement reported by RNZ.
## Your poll detective challenge
Find a poll headline and ask four questions: who ran it, when were people interviewed, how many people answered, and what uncertainty is reported?
Then ask the most important question: is this a survey, a prediction or an actual count? Those are three different things.
Checked against the linked reporting on 3 November 2026. This is a neutral learning update, not a recommendation to vote for any party.